Our pick for every NFL game this week, two ways:
who wins the game outright, and who covers the spread. 16 games on the card right now.
Built for office pools, family pools and group chats. Nothing to sign up for.
Straight-up probability here is market-implied. The betting market sets a point spread on every game, and that spread is the only thing we feed in. The market is efficient at picking outright winners and we have not shown we can beat it at that, so this is us reading the market clearly, not us claiming to know better.
What the spread pick means
At the market number, a spread is built so both sides are close to a coin flip. We do not have a proven edge against it, and we are not going to pretend otherwise. A pool card needs a side for every game, so we list the side the market prices as stronger and we tell you that is what it is.
Plenty of pools lock their spreads in the middle of the week and never move them again. We tested whether that gap is worth something and it is not: across 166 games, freezing the line changed which side covered in 2 of them. Even among the games whose number moved two points or more, it changed the answer once in ten. If your pool uses its own numbers, put them in below and we will flag the few games where your number really is different. On the rest it is the same bet.
63%give or take 1.65 market-implied win probability
Clear favorite
Against the spread
Dallas Cowboys -4
Coin flip at this number. We list the side the market prices as stronger.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Sun, Sep 20 · 7:20 PM CT · Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 · total 46.5
10pts
Straight up
Kansas City Chiefs
71%give or take 1.87 market-implied win probability
Clear favorite
Against the spread
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5
Coin flip at this number. We list the side the market prices as stronger.
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams
Mon, Sep 21 · 7:15 PM CT · Los Angeles Rams -7.5 · total 47.5
13pts
Straight up
Los Angeles Rams
73%give or take 1.88 market-implied win probability
Clear favorite
Against the spread
Los Angeles Rams -7.5
Coin flip at this number. We list the side the market prices as stronger.
How the NFL percentage is worked out: the market spread, mapped to a win probability by a curve fitted to 27 seasons of finished NFL games. Nothing else goes in.
Where you see "give or take", that is the honest margin on the number, in percentage points; two picks closer together
than that are a tie, not a ranking. We never print 0 or 100 percent, because neither is ever true.
Spreads shown are the average of the books we watch, to the nearest half point, so your book or your pool
sheet may sit half a point either side.
Questions
What is Weekly Picks?
A pick for every NFL and college football game this week, two ways: who wins the game outright, and who covers the spread. Free, no account needed.
Do you have an edge on picking outright winners?
No. The win probability shown is market-implied, derived from the market point spread and nothing else. The market is efficient at pricing outright winners and we have not demonstrated we beat it there.
Do you have an edge against the spread?
No. A spread is priced so both sides are close to a coin flip. We publish a full against-the-spread card because people are in spread pools and need one, not because we can beat the number.
My pool freezes its spreads on Wednesday. Is that worth something?
Almost never. We tested it across 166 games and freezing the line changed which side covered in 2 of them. You can enter your pool numbers on the page and we will flag the handful of games where your number is genuinely different from today.
How do I use this for a confidence pool?
Switch the card to confidence order. It ranks the same picks by how sure the market is, so your highest point value lands on the game the market is most certain about.
On numbers we do not show
You will not find a win-loss record or a return figure on this page. Published performance numbers come from one place at Sharp Plays and it is not here, so nothing on this page is going to quote you one it made up.